By: J. Randolph Evans
2012 will be an historic election – no matter what happens. Right now, all eyes remain fixed on the GOP nomination. In November, the world will focus on the Presidential election to see whether President Barack Obama can get reelected. But, on November 6, 2012, control of another branch of government – the Congress – will also be at play.
Currently, Republicans control the United States House of Representatives by a 242-193 margin. Democrats control the Senate by a 53-47 margin. Control of the House and Senate has see-sawed back and forth in recent years.
In 2012, 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for election. Of the 33, Democrats (including 2 independents who vote with the Democrats) have 23 seats at risk. The Republicans have only 10.
With a 3-seat GOP pickup, it would be a 50/50 tie with the Vice President casting the tie-breaking vote. So, if Republicans win the White House, they would only need 3 of the 23 seats currently held by Democrats to regain a majority of the Senate. If President Obama wins reelection, Republicans would need to pick up 4 seats.
One thing that makes the Senate political picture murkier is the number of Senators who are retiring. So far, 10 Senators (almost 1/3 of the seats up for election) have announced their decision to not seek reelection. Retirements, leaving no incumbent, offer the best opportunity for pick-ups. Of the 10 retirements, 7 are Democrats and 3 are Republicans. With these numbers, the math gets complicated for Democrats seeking to hold their majority in the Senate.
Basically, to hold their majority in the Senate, Democrats must hold 19-20 of the seats they currently have – 7 of which are open seats without an incumbent. Republicans must only defend 10 seats, of which 3 are open.
Undoubtedly, Republicans will focus their efforts on some key states like Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin – all of which have no incumbent. In addition, there will be real pushes in Florida, Missouri, and West Virginia.
Democrats will likely target the open Republican seat in Maine (with an independent as opposed to a Democrat), and Republican incumbents in Massachusetts and Nevada.
Most political insiders agree that around 15 of the 33 Senate seats are really at play – 4 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Contrary to what pundits say, there are no safe seats anymore.
Recent years have proven that there can be wide swings in Senate elections – with control swinging back and forth. The number of retirements in 2012 makes a swing all the more possible again in 2012.
In the House, all 435 Members are up for reelection, with the landscape changing as a result of the 2010 Census. Some states (like Georgia) gained Representatives while other states lost some. In all, 12 states got more Members of Congress, with Texas (+4) and Florida (+2) being the big winners. Georgia gained 1.
Except for states with only 1 House Member, every Congressional District changed as a result of reapportionment, with some changing a lot more than others. This will be the first election with the new Congressional District lines.
Democrats would need to pick up 25 seats in order to regain control and return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership. So far, 22 Democrats have announced their retirement from the House. 17 Republicans are retiring. Two incumbents have lost their primaries. With reapportionment, over 50 new Members will enter the House after the November election.
In the House, over half of the most vulnerable 25 Members are Republicans. Democrats have targeted 50 Republican seats.
Increasingly, voters have proven that they will make big changes in a single election in the House. In non-Presidential years, 1994, 2006, and 2010, voters changed control of the House by big margins.
With the Congressional approval rating standing at just 11%, every incumbent in Congress has reason to worry. Some will face primary opposition, especially in the new Congressional districts. Others will face challenges based on voter discontent.
Make no mistake, the Presidential election will dictate the story line for the 2012 elections. One big question could be whether President Obama runs with Congressional Democrats or from them.
The reverse could be true for Republicans. Will Congressional Republicans run with their nominee, or do their own thing in a bid to retain control of the House and take advantage of the numbers in the Senate?
The most interesting thing about the 2012 elections is that no one knows what will happen – and it scares the dickens out of politicians and insiders. In 2008, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton. In 2010, Republicans won 63 seats to regain control of the House. In 2012, Republicans have yet to pick their nominee and there is no end in sight.
Anything can happen, and probably will.