By: J. Randolph Evans
The 2012 GOP Presidential campaigns now move through to New Hampshire on their way to South Carolina. It is a race that started with an enormous potential field of candidates that included Governor Mike Huckabee, Governor Sarah Palin, New York businessman Donald Trump, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, businessman Herman Cain, and Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.
And, oh, how the contest has changed! It has been a roller coaster ride filled with enough twists and turns to merit a spot at Six Flags over Georgia. Candidates have been up and down and all around in the polls as each candidate has had their moment of ‘fun’ in the frontrunner spotlight.
There have been gaffes and scandals and millions of attack ads all aimed at making sure that no one candidate gets too far out in front. Yet, through it all, the race to the nomination remains wide open with six candidates still in and about half that with a shot at winning the nomination.
New Hampshire is an interesting place. It takes great pride in being the first primary in the Presidential nominating process. Most in the media and many of the candidates believe it is a safe win for Governor Romney who has a home in New Hampshire and invested millions in developing the Granite State as a firewall between Iowa and South Carolina.
That could happen. But, New Hampshire voters have been historically unpredictable – even up until the last day. In recent years, frontrunners in pre-primary election polls in New Hampshire have not only come up short, but ended up way down. New Hampshire voters take their role quite seriously.
Regardless of the outcome in New Hampshire, the GOP contest then travels south to South Carolina. The South Carolina contest has typically been a brutal one among the remaining candidates and for good reason. If Iowa and New Hampshire are games for making the playoffs, then South Carolina and Florida are the playoffs. For many candidates, it is win or go home – so, they leave everything on the political playing field.
This year, South Carolina could either crown a winner, or at least winnow the field by a candidate or two. If Governor Mitt Romney, who ties for first in Iowa and wins New Hampshire, then wins South Carolina, the institutional pressure for crowning him GOP champion may be just too much. The fear of many conservatives is that this is entirely possible because of the dynamics of the election contests as opposed to consensus among Republicans.
In 2008, Senator Fred Thompson’s late entry into the GOP field precluded a win by Governor Mike Huckabee and paved the way for a Senator John McCain win in South Carolina. Basically, the conservative votes got divided among many candidates while the moderate votes bolstered by veterans votes went to Senator McCain.
A similar dynamic exists this year in South Carolina with three heavy hitting conservatives all vying in the same state – Senator Rick Santorum, Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Governor Rick Perry. Of course, this does not even include Congressman Ron Paul and his impact on primary voters.
As a result, the big question for South Carolina will be whether conservative voters consolidate around one or two candidates. If so, then Florida becomes the next round of the playoffs and narrows the field to two. Georgia and the rest of the Super Tuesday states then decide the 2012 Republican nominee for the general election. Georgia GOP Chair Sue Everhart’s CNN GOP Presidential Debate on the eve of Super Tuesday then becomes enormous. The focus of the world will be here.
Like SEC football, the depth of the candidates and their teams will become increasingly important with each passing contest with the stakes getting higher and higher. If the GOP Presidential contest goes on past Super Tuesday, then the candidates with 50-state strategies and operations will have the advantage.
Senator Hillary Clinton learned this lesson the hard way in 2008 when her game plan depended on an early knock-out. When that did not happen, she had to scramble to compete in the later states and it was not enough.
Of course, this assumes we can predict some things in 2012. Nothing is predictable. In fact, there are still some interesting surprises to come. As more candidates drop out, and as voters look down the road to where things might end, the political dynamics will continue to change.
It is entirely possible that the GOP nomination process could go well into May. Or, it could be over in South Carolina. Or, something completely unexpected could happen yet again. This is the amazing feature of a democracy in which the American people get to decide what happens next. By all indications, Americans, including Republicans, have yet to make up their minds.