By: J. Randolph Evans

Democrats (and the mainstream media) have taken some glee from the ongoing contentious contest for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination. Indeed, they sound like Republicans last time celebrating the extended 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination battle between then Senator Hillary Clinton (the presumptive nominee who wasn’t) and Senator Barack Obama (the eventual nominee and now President). Democratic insiders and institutional party operatives remained convinced that Senator Clinton would win all the way until the day she didn’t.

This ‘vetting’ process is part of winning the nomination, and it should be. If candidates can’t take the heat, the best time to find out is before they are the chef in the kitchen. Every weakness has to be exposed and every test thrown at them.

No one doubts that this year’s General Election will be every bit as tough, and undoubtedly, tougher than anything in the primaries. And, it does not end there. Presidents get hammered every day from the moment they take office until the day they leave office (and with some – like President George W. Bush – even long after they have left office).

With all of that said, it can be tough for the faint of heart to watch as the candidates get bruised and battered along the way. Yet, it is a long time until Labor Day, and an even longer time until November 4, 2012.

Oddly, the current scorecard in the GOP race could not be more confusing. On the one hand, Governor Mitt Romney has scored one unexpected victory in Iowa and a foregone victory in New Hampshire (the adjacent neighbor to his home in Massachusetts where he was governor). The last time this was done was 1976 by President Gerald Ford. He lost in the general election.

Meanwhile, conservatives continue to battle amongst themselves for the Romney alternative with three candidates dividing up 60%+ in the GOP field. Most agree that at some point, Governor Romney has to either find a way to break in among conservatives, or conservatives will eventually coalesce around someone else as the eventual nominee.

Congressman Ron Paul and former Utah Governor John Huntsman complicate the math for building momentum in very different ways. Congressman Paul’s devoted following has enabled him to remain a factor in the GOP field. Here is how.

Assume there are 15 devoted Ron Paul followers. They will vote no matter what. If the total votes cast are 100, then they are only 15% of the total. But, if the total votes cast are only 30 people, then he gets 50% (15 of 30).

So, the smaller the state and the turnout, the greater Congressman Paul’s impact is. Presumably, as the nomination process moves to larger states like Florida or Georgia, his impact could become less of a factor.

Then there is Governor Huntsman. Like Senator Rick Santorum in Iowa, Governor Huntsman put all of his eggs in one state – New Hampshire. And like Senator Santorum, his impressive showing got him a ticket to ride a little longer. While most believe it was a ticket to South Carolina, it is more likely a ticket to Florida. South Carolina won’t be the friendliest of territories for him, but if he is prepared to spend real money, he could have a real impact in Florida.

Governor Huntsman does create some interesting dynamics for the GOP race. Every vote he gets is more likely than not a vote taken from Governor Romney. It is dilution from the middle as 3 conservatives dilute the right.

In the end, South Carolina could be the last stand for one (or maybe two) candidates. Florida is just too expensive for tagalongs to compete. Should Governor Huntsman play on in Florida while a conservative or two fall away in South Carolina, then the dynamics get even more interesting.

Just like 2008, there will be lots of last minute twists and turns as GOP voters realign constantly, with the ever changing political landscape of a topsy-turvy contest. Look next for a dizzying pace of endorsements in the days ahead. At some point, former candidates will start to jump in while they are still relevant and can have an impact.

It was crazy last time and it will be crazy this time.

Unless one candidate can break through with a 45%+ win (very unlikely) in South Carolina, then the show will likely go on even as the field dwindles down from too many to the final two or three. Until then, the majority of GOP voters seem resigned to wait.

So, sing it again Sam – Florida may not be the end of show. Everything could come back once again to Super Tuesday and Georgia. Somehow it would be fitting if Georgia could be among the states to actually pick the Republican nominee who will face President Obama in November.