By J. Randolph Evans
The Chicago Cubs led the New York Mets by 9½ games in the National League East late in the 1973 Major League Baseball season. Lawrence Peter “Yogi” Berra summed up the situation like this:
“It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Yogi Berra was right about baseball in 1973. The Mets ended up winning the division in the last game of the season.
Pundits seem to forget where things were in September 2007 heading into the 2008 Presidential election. On the Democratic side, the contest was all but over. New York Senator Hillary Clinton had the Democratic nomination sewn up. She had an organization, endorsements, money, and President Bill Clinton (the last Democrat before 2008 to actually win the White House). Her main opposition was the largely inexperienced junior Senator from Illinois (who many believed was actually running for Vice-President.)
On the Republican side, things were a bit more complicated. The list of Republican candidates was long and notable as the end of 2007 approached. Since it was the first time since 1928 that neither the incumbent President nor Vice President was seeking his party’s nomination for President, 14 candidates had stepped up to the plate.
As 2007 closed and 2008 was on the horizon, most “experts” believed that the nomination would be a ‘Mayor Rudy Giuliani / not Giuliani’ contest – a sort of NCAA type political bracketology between moderates and conservatives. There was some basis for this view. Mayor Giuliani (the ‘moderate’) led most polls, with conservatives Senator Fred Thompson and Governor Mike Huckabee vying for the right to challenge him.
Media personalities and paid consultants openly described the rest of the field as dark horses or long (as in long, long, long) shot candidates. Senator McCain’s campaign barely had a pulse with some believing it was dead. He was often described as the ‘dead man walking’ as he carried his own bags through airports without the conventional staff or resources to mount a serious challenge for the nomination – at least according to the “professionals.”
Oh, how soon the media and the experts forget.
Of course, history wrote a much different script than the one penciled out by pundits on cable news programs. Mayor Giuliani and Senator Thompson were never even serious factors in the end. From back in the pack, Governor Romney and Senator McCain emerged as the main contenders for the nomination.
Notably, it all happened so much more tactically than anyone imagined. In fact, the much predicted battle between the right and the middle in the Republican Party never quite materialized. Instead, it was the steady stream of comings and goings of various candidates and their campaigns that actually dictated the direction of the GOP contest.
For the political junkies, here is one description of how it all went down. Mayor Giuliani made a tactical decision to skip Iowa, opening the door to a big win for Governor Huckabee. The maverick Senator McCain then wins New Hampshire blocking a Huckabee runaway train toward the nomination.
Senator Thompson thwarts a Governor Huckabee comeback in South Carolina by dividing conservatives, thrusting Florida’s primary into the political stratosphere. Then, Senator McCain convinces Florida Governor Charlie Crist to flip from Mayor Giuliani on the eve of the Florida primary to slingshot Senator McCain to the top on his way to the GOP nomination.
Of course, not even this description gives justice to all of the ins and outs of the 2007 GOP presidential contest as it unfolded.
Looking back, it was dizzying to say the least – with tactical maneuverings dominating the process. Candidates in, candidates out – all at critical moments – in a high stakes chess game on a political game board that changed at a frenzied pace daily, if not hourly.
Now, is there any good reason to think that the same thing is not already happening this time around?
Businessman Donald Trump flirts but does not dance. Governor Huckabee is tempted but does not yield. Governor Sarah Palin (Alaska) toys but does not decide. Governor Pawlenty (Minnesota) gets in, but then gets out. Of course, all of this has happened months before the first vote has actually been cast. And, there is so much more to come.
So far, the media has not got much right. Here’s more:
Congresswoman Michelle Bachman is much smarter than most people think.
Herman Cain’s support is much deeper than consultants understand.
Speaker Newt Gingrich’s organizational reach is much broader than paid political professionals imagine.
Congressman Ron Paul’s campaign is about much more than the person – Ron Paul.
Senator Rick Santorum’s investment of personal time in Iowa will pay much greater dividends than most expect.
Governor Perry’s compassionate side is much more important than his Texan tough exterior.
Governor Romney’s marathon strategy can succeed if there is a marathon.