By: Randy Evans
Sen. Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement and the whole political world in Georgia began to swirl. Most Georgia Republicans thought that their next meaningful chance for advancement would be 2018 when Gov. Nathan Deal’s second (and final, under Georgia’s Constitution) term ended.

While certainly, the candidates for Sen. Chambliss’ replacement was the primary story for most of the media, the real story is just how much impact his departure will have on Georgia’s political landscape. It is not so much about his one office, as significant as United States senators are. The real story involves trickle-down politics of a monumental kind.

In part, trickle-down politics is the inevitable consequence when political heavyweights decide to take a pass. Other than Sen. Johnny Isakson, there are only a handful of candidates with the statewide name recognition to start as a favorite to replace Sen. Chambliss.

Three of them (former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Gov. Deal and former presidential candidate Herman Cain) said “no” right out of the box. Former Gov. Sonny Perdue has confirmed he is not interested. The next tier of candidates have neither the statewide name recognition nor the resources to dominate the political playing field. Yet, they do have a competitive advantage over most other candidates.

For the Republicans, the focus shifts to Georgia’s Congressional delegation. Six (over half) members are realistic possibilities: Jack Kingston, Lynn Westmoreland, Tom Price, Austin Scott, Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey.

Of course, Georgia Republicans hope only one will emerge as the consensus candidate to replace Sen. Chambliss. That is not going to happen. On the other hand, no one should expect all six to run either. Georgia Republicans will, in all likelihood, have a healthy competitive primary next year.

But, being a congressman is no lock for a U.S. Senate seat. A Georgia congressman represents only 1/14th of the state. That is a long way from winning a statewide race.

It is possible that one of Georgia’s statewide constitutional officers (all of whom are Republicans) might decide to run. Although Attorney General Sam Olens has left the idea on the table, it is unlikely. With the exception of Gov. Deal, none have had enough time to build enough statewide name recognition to take the risk. But, there will be others.

Amidst all of the political swirling, Georgia Republicans meet in May to pick a new state chair for the party because GOP Chair Sue Everhart is term-limited. Between the chairman’s race and the Senate race, it should make the Georgia Republican convention quite interesting. With so many moving parts, Georgia Democrats see opportunity.

For the Democrats, members of the Congressional delegation are not an option. To the dismay of Georgia Republicans trying to win his Republican-tilting district, Democratic 12th District Congressman John Barrow has already said “no.” Civil rights icon and 5th District Congressman John Lewis has no interest. The other Democratic congressmen are not viable options.

That leaves Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed. Currently, Mayor Reed is running for re-election. He will raise lots of money for his campaign. Yet, by all accounts, he will have no meaningful opposition. His hefty re-election campaign war chest could well become a de facto (although not legal) exploratory committee for a U.S. Senate bid.

Undoubtedly, President Barack Obama would lend a hand to Mayor Reed —one of President Obama’s closest confidantes. No one should underestimate the ability of an incumbent president to raise money, or the impact of the Obama political machine. This is true even in Georgia — the state with the second-closest margin of victory of Gov. Mitt Romney over President Obama in 2012 (after North Carolina). Notably, Mayor Reed presents some significant challenges for Republicans. He has worked closely with Gov. Deal on a number of projects. In a general election, this could come in handy with voters deciding to vote to re-elect Gov. Deal while supporting Mayor Reed for U.S. Senate.

Yet, to win statewide, Mayor Reed would need some help. In 2012, Republican candidates proved in Missouri and Indiana that they sometimes do help Democratic candidates for Senate. That will likely be Mayor Reed’s bet.

There are some other Democratic possibilities. After Mayor Reed, there is Sen. Jason Carter (the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter) and state House Minority Leader Rep. Stacey Abrams, to name a few.

But discipline is a strength of the Democratic National Senatorial Committee. By the time the 2014 Democratic Primary rolls around, Democrats will have rallied around their candidate. They have one shot, and it will be their best shot.

On both sides of the political aisle, the candidates seeking to replace Sen. Chambliss are just the beginning of the story. Those candidates’ current offices will become open seats, and that is where trickle-down politics begins. Each candidate for Sen. Chambliss’ Senate seat creates another complete set of these possibilities, with all kinds of permutations, played out across Georgia’s political landscape.