By: Randy Evans
In just over one year, Georgians will cast their ballots in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Until Sen. Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement, most expected these primaries to be largely uneventful. Gov. Nathan Deal would win the GOP nomination and Democrats would struggle to find a meaningful candidate. Georgia’s decidedly red-state status would render the November 2014 general election anticlimactic. But then, with Chambliss’ announcement, things changed.
No one seriously questions that Georgia continues to be a decidedly red state. As a result, absent some unexpected surprise or woefully weak nominee, the winner of the 2014 Republican primary (undoubtedly requiring a primary runoff election) for U.S. Senate should be the next Georgia senator. But who that might be is anyone’s guess.

Six candidates, some announced, others strongly considering, appear ready to vie for the 2014 Georgia GOP Senate nomination — three current members of Congress; two well-respected business leaders; and one former statewide elected official. The dynamics of these six potential Senate hopefuls makes any prediction regarding the outcome necessarily unreliable. Yet, there are some things that are noteworthy.
To date, the announced candidates include 1st District Congressman Jack Kingston, 10th District Congressman Paul Broun, 11th District Congressman Phil Gingrey and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel. Businessman David Perdue has formed an exploratory committee and hired skilled staff for a strong campaign. Businesswoman Kelly Loeffler is considering the possibility and looks like a strong candidate. Every one of them can win, but only one will win. Which one?
On the one hand, incumbency has its advantages, and that is certainly true for all three members of Congress seeking Chambliss’ Senate seat. All three have been elected, and re-elected by big margins in large parts of Georgia. Yet, each congressional district is only 1/14th of Georgia. Even with redistricting (which means that each congressman has run in different parts of Georgia as his congressional district has changed), none have come close to running statewide and their relatively low statewide name recognition and support reflects this.
Handel did run statewide and even made a runoff with Gov. Deal. The residual effect of her gubernatorial campaign translates into solid numbers for her statewide name recognition — indeed on par with her Republican congressional counterparts, with especially strong numbers in the metropolitan Atlanta area. But, in Republican Party primary politics, name recognition can have its challenges.
The challenge for members of Congress as Senate candidates is to ride the name recognition from congressional incumbency without becoming susceptible to the potentially politically fatal tag of “Washington insider” — an especially risky proposition in Republican primaries. Indeed, some argue that the best thing that happened to Congressman Mark Sanford in South Carolina was the decision of House Republicans to disown him. As an outsider, he cruised to victory notwithstanding his sudden fall from power following a quick trip to Argentina.
Handel faces a similar challenge. While she benefits from the elevated name identification from the bitterly contested statewide primary gubernatorial contest in 2010, she also suffers its consequences. Wounds are slow to heal among Republican primary voters, especially when the wounds are so deep. Indeed, some Republicans hold grudges from political conventions that occurred decades ago.
With all of that said, most insiders agree that some name recognition is better than no name recognition at all. And so, the two political newcomers have a steep uphill challenge regarding statewide name recognition. David Perdue has the advantage of having the same last name as still popular former Gov. Sonny Perdue, and actually being related to him. Undoubtedly, he will work hard to build on that base. Indeed, his current campaign staff looks a lot like Gov. Perdue’s staff.
Kelly Loeffler has the advantage of being a true newcomer. This means that she has the unique advantage of being able to clearly define who she is — without voting records, prior campaigns or political speeches to contradict her. Clean slates are a beautiful thing in politics. Yet, that will not be enough. For her, statewide name recognition means money — lots of money.
Notably, all three members of Congress also have significant war chests. Handel has raised the kind of money it takes before. She must now prove she can do it again. To catch up, Perdue and Loeffler will have to just be prepared to write the necessary checks to jump-start their campaigns.
In the end, the price tag for this election will be expensive — probably around $5 million. One potential candidate, Congressman Tom Price, has already taken a pass after moving toward a Senate run. Watch for a couple of these other folks to also drop by the wayside as qualifying next year approaches.