All posts by TMF Admin

Know your Politician – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

Four stories were in the news this week. At first glance, three were financial, our normal subject area, and the other was about character and morality. However, upon reflection – which I had plenty of time for as I had a badly scattered series of appointments – all four are about what happens when voters fail to heed the the admonition which titles this article “Know your … Read more...

Who is Harry Dent? – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

The economy will be THE underlying issue in politics for the foreseeable future. America has, finally, woken-up to the fact that spending money we don’t have must stop. Now the conversation is turning to how do we dig out of the hole the tax & spenders have gotten us into. To answer that question, we must look at what’s likely and/or possible for the next 20 years.  … Read more...

The State of the States – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

In today’s Wall Street Journal, Meredith Whitney looks at the state of the states. With the end of stimulus money and the end of QE2 (quantitative easing) just weeks away, this is timely. In January we talked about the states “The States – America’s PIIGS?” in relation the EU countries.

Several states have used stimulus money to put off dealing with systemic problems – … Read more...

Housing Market Double Dips! – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

The long expected housing double dip has happened. Diana Olick, Reality Check, reports that March 2011 numbers are lower than the March 2009 trough. In a second piece she discusses reasons for the dip. Unfortunately, her analysis has since been damaged by today’s unemployment report. In her 23 March 2011 analysis she states “The pros are that the job market is slowly recovering. Jobs are key to … Read more...

An interesting week – Just the Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

Well, this has been an interesting week and not all bad. The world got to see Ben Bernanke admit, live and in color, that his Fed can’t do much about unemployment and then tell us the inflation that’s hurting every American family “won’t last long”. It would have been interesting to understand the logic that led him to that conclusion.

Larry Kudlow “Gold Slams Bernanke” … Read more...

No More Smoke and Mirrors – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

This April 18th, 2011 will be one of those dates hated by school kids – because it will be part of the dreaded “essay question”. It’s still to be seen what the essay will describe – the beginning of America’s slide into oblivion or  the beginning of her heroic escape from the yawning abyss of Euro-socialism.

One essay tied to 18 Apr 2011 can be written now … Read more...

S&P Cuts U.S. Ratings Outlook to Negative – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

A Special Breaking News Edition

In a move surprising only those who believe demagoguery is a substitute for economics, the Standard & Poor Ratings Services downgraded its outlook on the US to “Negative” from “Stable”. This is the first step toward a downgrade of the US credit rating from AAA, which would increase borrowing costs and hasten America’s spiral into economic ruin.

The Statement

“More than two … Read more...

Lies, dammed lies and the CPI – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

On Tuesday, either the PC-censor was out sick or there’s a new kid who’s not yet trained – either way a piece was published that is worthy of attention

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure“.

What “older measure” you might ask. Well, the older measure based on actual arithmetic rather than “Hedonic Adjustments” .

The Bureau of Labor Statistics describes the process … Read more...

How BIG is America’s Debt? – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

We’ve heard lots about America’s debt in the past weeks – unless you watch the 6 o’clock news, then all you’ve heard about is shootings and wrecks. Some commentators would have you believe that debt is bad. No, debt is not bad. Debt is a business tool. Arguably, the most important business tool. Look around, every thing you see – buildings, roads, hospitals, …. were built … Read more...

Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

With our non-royalty political structure, the term sovereign is not a household word. It is one with which we need to become familiar. The term refers to governments, as in sovereign debt, sovereign default, sovereign bankruptcy and (less frequently) sovereign fiscal responsibility. The following press release tells of an important scholarly work on understanding this critical set of issues:

WASHINGTON, March 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Today, the Read more...

How many public employees are you carrying? – Just The Numbers, Mam

By Les Dunaway

In “The States – America’s PIIGS? ” we talked about the debt / spending problems that various US states and cities face. An insightful look at the underlying cause is found in “What’s Your State’s Deadweight Ratio?” by William Baldwin in the Mar 16, 2011 Forbes.

Mr Baldwin writes

“The structural problem is that government has too many mouths to feed. It’s possible to … Read more...