By J. Randolph Evans – Column No. 1053 (1/28/11)
Well, it is that time. The announcements by potential 2012 Presidential candidates have started and will continue at a much faster and more furious pace. There will be three kinds of announcements.
First, there will be the “I am not running” announcements. The best example of this category is Congressman Mike Pence from Indiana. In recent years, Congressman Pence has often been mentioned as a potential GOP Presidential candidate, especially after his selection to be the Chair of the House Republican Conference in 2008. After Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives last year, Congressman Pence resigned from this position, a clear signal that he would either run for governor of Indiana or for President of the United States. After some media hype about his decision, Congressman Pence announced last week that he would not be a candidate for President. Few insiders were surprised.
Congressman Pence’s strategy was simple – get three bites at the proverbial “day in the media spotlight” apple: (i) the announcement that he is not a candidate for President; (ii) the endorsement of Governor Mitch Daniels for President; and (iii) the announcement that Congressman Pence is a candidate for governor of Indiana.
There may be a couple of other candidates that fit into this category. All will use the high profile media rich platform associated with Presidential aspirations to launch some other effort. After all, none of the potential Presidential aspirants will squander the media and public attention associated with a Presidential race.
Second, there will be the “I will decide later in the summer” candidates. This is code for “I am not running.” While it makes good political theatre to hint at a late-coming political white knight who storms onto the political stage to capture the imagination of the voters and steal the nomination, the nomination process makes it next to impossible to actually do it. Senator Fred Thompson learned this the hard way in 2008. Experienced political insiders know this well.
Running for President involves three complicated and difficult things: raising money; building an organization for managing supporters and volunteers; and, complying with all the endless legal requirements of getting on the ballot and being a candidate. None can be accomplished in the blink of eye, or even in short order. Instead, they involve lots of planning, implementation, and follow-through.
Consider just the fundraising. No one contributor can give more than just over $2,000. In the abstract, that sounds like a lot of money. In the context of a Presidential campaign that could approach $1 billion in total expenditures, it is not. To just raise $10 million (which is not a lot in Presidential campaign terms), a candidate has to convince almost 5,000 people to contribute over $2,000 each to their campaign.
And, there is the time component. One of the most significant events of the 2012 Presidential campaign cycle will be the Ames Straw Poll on August 13, 2011 in Ames, Iowa. That is just five months away (and everyone is counting). It is the first big test of political organization for all candidates who want to be competitive in Iowa and nationally. A poor showing means that volunteers and donors look to other candidates, making fundraising and attracting volunteers much more difficult.
If that was not enough, there are the Presidential debates that have already been scheduled. Already, there are debates scheduled in South Carolina on May 5, 2011, New Hampshire on June 7, 2011, and Iowa on August 11, 2011.
The bottom line is that anyone who is not announcing that she or he is a candidate shortly is probably never going to be a candidate in 2012.
Why put on the charade? Exposure. Mere talk of Presidential campaigns sells books, attracts audiences, and so on. So, unless there is some other effort underway, (like running for governor of Indiana), there is no good reason to close the door officially on a Presidential bid until the last possible moment.
Third, there is the “I am a candidate” group. With federal campaign laws the way they are, it is never that simple. As a result, there is always the quick surge of candidates saying “I am exploring” a candidacy or “I am testing the waters”. These will be followed in pretty short order with “I am a candidate.” That list has already started with Herman Cain’s announcement. It is about to get supercharged with a series of announcements like there is no tomorrow, because in political terms, there is no political tomorrow..
After all, no candidate has won the GOP nomination without winning two of the three first states – Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. To be competitive in those states, serious candidates must start soon. The Iowa Caucuses are February 6, 2012, less than one year away.