By: Randy Evans

When it comes to political primaries, scheduling can mean everything. Over the years, incumbent governors and legislatures of both political parties have manipulated the election calendar to maximize their chances of re-election. Yet, for Georgia in 2014, it was a judge — U.S. District Court Judge Steven Jones — that has set the boundaries for the timing of Georgia’s 2014 elections.

Like the Democrats before, Georgia Republicans selected the middle of July for the primary election. Generally, the thought is that voter turnout is notoriously low during the heat of summer while many folks are on vacation or otherwise occupied with summer activities.

Incumbents like low-turnout primaries because it makes intra-party challenges extremely difficult. Incumbents typically enjoy the favor of party activists and donors. Having more money to reach fewer people combined with the advantages of incumbency gives them a decided leg up. Absent some populist movement that can get folks to the polls, it means that incumbent politicians’ chances go up as the turnout goes down.

But, while low-turnout primary elections with incumbents are a good bet, low-turnout primary elections without incumbents are high-stakes poker. If voter turnout is low, then a well-organized and energized subgroup within a party can actually win. The reason is simple math. As the total number of voters drops, the percentage of any one group with a steady base goes up.

During the last two national election cycles, Republicans have learned this lesson well when weak U.S. senatorial candidates beat out stronger general election candidates in primaries, only to then lose in the general election. And so, when Sen. Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement, leaving the Georgia Senate seat without an incumbent, the low-voter turnout July primary originally planned did not look quite as good. Indeed, for some Republican insiders in the Washington, D.C., beltway, it looked downright scary.

Undoubtedly, their preference was a “general election light” Republican primary with turnout similar to the general election. Their assumption was that such a high-turnout primary would produce a nominee much more capable of winning the general election than a nominee running in a low-turnout election where a subgroup within a party could elect a weak candidate.

Yet, for legislators facing the prospect of primary challenges in 2014, the July primary was still just fine. In fact, the idea of moving Georgia’s primary up earlier seemed like more risk than it was worth. In large part, this is due to Georgia’s unique campaign finance laws.

Under existing Georgia law, elected Georgia officials cannot raise money for their campaigns while the General Assembly is in session. It convenes in January and typically adjourns around April. In practical political terms, this timing issue has a big impact.

An earlier primary would mean that incumbent legislators could face primary challenges in elections with greater voter turnout, but without the benefit of being able to raise re-election funds during the weeks leading up to the primary. The net effect was that it was extremely unlikely the General Assembly would voluntarily move the primary up earlier even if it meant increasing the chances that Republicans could retain the U.S. Senate seat.

And so, for GOP leaders, it was quite the political quandary: play it safe for state legislators and leave the primary in July, but risk the U.S. Senate seat; or, push to move the primary up earlier in order to nominate a more electable U.S. Senate candidate, but risk some state legislators who would not have the benefit of raising money in the months leading up the primary.

Then, along comes the Department of Justice with a challenge to Georgia’s election timing. The result was a court order. Judge Jones entered an order requiring Georgia to alter the dates of its federal elections (which effectively means all 2014 elections) to ensure absentee ballots can be sent out at least 45 days prior to any primary and general run-off elections. The impact was monumental: new primary voting dates. Under Judge Jones’ ruling, the latest that Georgia could hold its 2014 primary was June 3, 2014.

Once the court ordered an earlier primary, the Republican leadership did the rest. Now, the 2014 primary election will occur on May 20, 2014 — while school is still in session and parents are still around to vote. Certainly, it will make some state legislator’s lives more complicated, but for Republicans intent on retaining Sen. Chambliss’ seat, it was a huge sigh of relief.