Jewish Political Perspective

By
Larry Laibson

Introduction
In Part I of this paper, I outlined the historical Jewish political perspective which is unique to America. Jews have consistently been Democratic with the largest majority of any group overall (Blacks are the largest Democratic voting bloc in recent elections after switching over from the Republican Party many years ago). This is an interesting phenomenon as Jews in other countries are more evenly divided between the various Left and Right Parties. Jewish immigrants came to America from Europe/Russia to escape anti-Semitism in the old countries. They were generally religious and socialistic. It is noted that the positions of the Right and support for Israel are more in line with the more religious Jews and the Torah. In America over the years, the socialistic part remained as did anti-Semitism, particularly for the first half of the 20th century which the Jews saw as emanating from the religious well-heeled Right. During this period, the Jewish religion also expanded into differing levels of “faith” with the Orthodoxy decreasing as Conservative and Reform Jews growing. Jews today are the least religious community in the United States and to them “Liberalism has almost become a religion on its own”. The Jews also saw the defeat of Hitler and Nazis (German National Socialist Party) under very liberal Democrat President Roosevelt. Through the 2012 elections and today, Jews see the GOP as the “Christian Party” and link this with history of anti-Semitism and constrains on social values associated with their tradition. Ironically, many Jews and Democrats see “Nazis” as Far Right though they represent a totalitarianism government of the Far Left and one of the current Democrat Presidential candidates is an a self-proclaimed socialist.

America today is morphing from its historical demographics and political perspectives. Is the Jewish political perspective changing? How has the U.S. Israel relationship, especially under President Obama and the current Iran Nuclear Deal, affected the Jewish voter? Are the Demographics changing for the 2016 Elections?

In Part II of this paper, I will address where we are today in the wind down of the Obama Administration, the Iran Nuclear Deal and the 2016 Elections.

Where are we today and for the 2016 Elections?
Where are we today? Has the Jewish support for Obama and the Democrat Party eroded? How has the U.S. relationship to Israel been during the Obama Administration and how is the Iran Nuclear Deal affecting any further movement in this relationship?
As noted earlier, Jewish support for Obama remained very strong in 2012 although it was reduced by about 9% in 2012 due to a variety of reasons which I suggest was tied to dissatisfaction in his general policies and their negative results to the both the country and U.S./Israel relationships. The 69% support, however, demonstrated that “Liberalism” was still the dominant factor.

FDR and Truman are long gone. Let’s look at “Hitlers” of our era, Iran, where Democrats counseled pacifism, appeasement and endless negotiation leading to the current Iran nuclear deal. The Right calls for strong and decisive actions from the free world and Israel. Israel’s most unshakable American allies are Republican and Conservative.
The Right is against the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran continues to cry for the destruction of Israel and “Death to America”. The heretofore secret side deals between the UN IAEA and Iran allow Iran to self-inspect some of the most critical sites (which even today are expanding their capacity) casting severe doubt on the entire inspection verification process and security of the deal that Obama has promised. While all documents, including these side deals, were required by Senator Corker’s Bill to be provided to Congress as part of their consideration and voting, these have yet to be provided.
Yet some very Liberal Democrats still have come out in support of passage, thus putting Party politics over National Security!

Yet some very Liberal Jews, in addition to supporting so many Liberal principles which conflict in substance with the Torah of Judaism at so many points, support policies which are at variance with the most basic of Jewish interest-the survival of Israel and consequently the Jewish people.

Many of my non-Jewish friends have asked me why do Jews remain so Liberal and supportive of the Democratic Party historically and now, especially under the last 7 years of the Obama Administration with its so many apparent negative dealings with Israel and its leaders, has now presented this Iran nuclear deal which was signed even as Iran leaders continued to call for the annihilation of Isrel (and “Death to America”)?
To me this is a very strange dichotomy and phenomena but I think a recent article by Dennis Prager covered this very well.
He wrote that the Iran deal has united left and right wings of Israel’s parties, that only 10% of Israelis support the deal while at least 50% of American Jews support it!

He postured that for the aforementioned 50% of American Jews have become more secular, their outlook on life has been shaped by the Left, that Israel’s importance or survival does not over-weigh other issues or parameters and that “negotiation not confrontation/give peace a chance” should always be followed” (even though the historical basis for this belief is very flawed).

Of most significant note, Dennis Prager wrote “If a Republican president had negotiated this deal, Democrats would now be strongly opposing it — along with most Republicans. But a Republican president never would have negotiated a deal that so weakens America’s position in the Middle East and puts Israel in such peril. Also, both Republicans and Democrats would have — correctly — opposed a president of the United States negotiating what is in fact a treaty without Congress’ approval…..So why do so many American Jews support the deal? Because they 1) are loyal to President Obama, 2) have an intense dislike of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and 3) have an intense dislike of Republicans.” (emphasis added.)
My personal synopsis of Prager’s article on Liberal Jews’ general strong feeling against anything Republican that outweighs their logic on most issues and this includes Israel and even their own National Security is that they are driven with the thought if “the Democrats negotiated the treaty it and the GOP is against it, than it must be must be good.”

The bottom line question to me is “Will the Iran deal, with its significant security risk to both the United States and Israel further erode Jewish support for the Democrat Party?”

In spite of Dennis Prager’s very discerning article, I personally believe the Democrat Party will not gain any Jewish voters but instead will lose a measurable percentage. The political support of the deal is very lopsided with the GOP being unanimously opposed and the majority of the Democrats also opposed with just a small number supporting it. Unfortunately, there may be enough Democrat votes, which are obviously purely political in nature to support the Democrat Party, to sustain a Presidential veto if Congress rejects the Deal.
I mentioned earlier that I would address J Street, a Jewish lobby group which promotes itself as a pro-Israel and pro-peace lobby and which has come out strongly in support of the Iran Deal.

J Street was started by billionaire George Siros, a Hungarian Jew who admitted on Dec 20, 1998 on CBS “60 Minutes” collaborating with the Nazi’s as a teenager and stated: “…I had no sense of guilt.” He founded J Street as an alternative lobby to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), whose pro-Israel polices, angered him. It is noted that J Street is sympathetic to Hamas and favors including them in any peace process.

J Street’s talking points, in its lobbying for the Iran Deal, mirror the Administration’s many talking points which are clearly disingenuous ““serves the vital security interest of both the United States and Israel…blocks all of Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon and stretches its breakout time from two or three months to a year; it imposes unprecedented international inspections and monitoring; it rolls back Iran’s existing program to a point where it is no longer a threat; and it puts in place a process for automatically re-imposing international sanctions should Iran backslide…… resolution of tough foreign policy disputes through diplomacy rather than resorting to war…… This deal places the Iranian nuclear program under the most stringent and intrusive inspections and monitoring regime in history…will allow inspectors to access and inspect any site they deem suspicious. No site, including military sites, is off-limits ….. This agreement is about verification, not trust….. And any Iranian failure to comply would result in the sanctions snapping back into place.”
These talking points and arguments by both the White House and J Street have already been proven to be farcical with the majority in Congress likely voting against the deal with the possibility of not being able to override the resultant Presidential veto.

For the Jewish voter, will the security of both the U.S. and Israel override the many social issues and concerns of the “Far Right” that have been so inimical to them?

I believe the Iran deal could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for more Jewish voters which, while maybe not being a substantial percentage, nonetheless could be significant in the 2016 elections.

2016 Elections
A recent poll showed that if the 2016 presidential election were held today, Jewish voters nationwide would probably split 70-30 for the Democratic candidate, much as they did in 2012. Younger Jews are more Democratic than older Jews. The most highly educated are the most highly Democratic. The most affluent are more Democratic. The unmarried without children at home are especially prone to lean Democratic.

Further, “Israel attachment is modestly correlated with Republican preference. Of particular interest is the pattern of weaker support for the Democrats among those more closely attached to Israel. They are consistent with previously noted differences among Orthodox, Conservative, Reform and nondenominational Jews, in that the more religious and more traditional evince higher attachment to Israel and more support for its policies…. Today, poll after poll shows Israel doing better among conservatives, Republicans and the religiously committed.”

I personally question the veracity of this poll as it was taken too early in the 2016 races and too soon in the debate regarding the Iran Nuclear deal and its impacts on Israel’s security.
Will the idea of the “first lady President” be a positive factor in the minds of liberal Jews, Blacks and Hispanics in 2016 just like the “first Black President” was a strong factor in 2008?

Will the Blacks and Jews support Hillary as they did her husband in his two elections? This is doubtful as he was very charismatic and the health and state of the economy and the United States’ world position was much better in the late 1980s-early 1990s than they are today. Plus, Hillary has a terrible record as Secretary of State for four years which is acerbated by the continuing roll-out of scandals on her personal server and emails, improper handling of classified material, potential “pay for play” deals with domestic and foreign interests with money flowing to the Clinton Foundation.

Moreover, the Obama Administration has pushed the Party to the Far Left with the Progressives and Socialists and others dramatically changing the Party from its historic past. The results, both at home and abroad, have been very bad with the major areas being outside “social issues”; the Economy, World affairs, turmoil in the Middle East, Expanded Terrorism, Decline of America internationally, Porous Borders and millions of Illegal Aliens, weakening Military, etal topped by the Iran Nuclear Deal which threatens Security of both the United States and Israel.

Voters are getting increasingly more demanding of politicians as evidenced in ongoing primary races.

Politicians cannot continue to take their “business as usual” attitude, promising one thing to get elected and not delivering. Obama’s many promises to the Black community have gone by the wayside with continued high unemployment and social unrest. Obama’s demonstrated or certainly highly questionable support of Israel has certainly raised the awareness of more Jews. Reforms to the excesses of Obama and the Far Left Progressives have gone unanswered even with the recent GOP majority in Congress.

Summary:
The Democrat and Republic Parties have morphed from the traditional values, agendas and platforms. The Democrats have continued their move to the Left with Progressives increasing their influence and a Socialist in the 2016 Presidential race. The GOP is fragmented into different factions with all ‘Conservative and Constitutionalists” but with varying degrees of liberal influence.
Politicians of both Parties make promises when campaigning but do not deliver on their promises when they get to Washington. Voter malaise is growing significantly as evidenced by the continued rising popularity of outsiders like Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, both outside the Party’s mainstream but both bringing the messages that more of the voters want to hear.

Will the results of the Obama’s terms in regard to the economy, foreign policy, national security, America’s Exceptionalism, adherence to the Constitution, Equal Opportunity for All and the Iran deal be taken into account by the Jewish, Black and Hispanic voters? Will they remain unshakably Democratic and Liberal?

The latter isn’t rational, it isn’t sensible and, in the specific regard to Israel, it certainly isn’t good for the Jews.

As a Conservative, I understand there is a social role for government to play but I believe balancing the budget, maintaining a strong dollar, a strong economy, a strong national defense and adherence to the Constitution and Laws are primal. A Federal Government is needed for a myriad of critical powers and responsibilities that surpass those of States and Citizens. The Constitution clearly recognized this and set-up checks and balances.

Therefore, I must disagree with my Liberal Jewish friends and associates who place Big Government socialism/social issues over most other major national and international issues currently being faced and place no boundaries on achievement of the former. Every program that fails they seem to maintain failed because of lack of funding. However, they never identify, in advance, how much should be a limit. For them there are no limits.

The “Changes” promised in 2008 have not been fulfilled even giving some liberal Democrats the benefit of doubt as to what to measure or what statistics to use. I believe more Democrats are taking critical looks at the migration of the Party further Left and whether “more of the same” or even Bigger Government is a viable approach. It is ironic that as the Party moves further Left under current and candidate proposed socialism programs, Democrats decry “Nazism” as “GOP and Right”. Again, are more Jewish voters seeing the dichotomy of this thinking?

The Iran nuclear deal could, whether or not it passes, could cost the Democratic Party critical Jewish votes, due to its threats to Israel.
I do not think the Jewish, Black and Hispanic vote for Hillary or other Democrat nominee will return to the higher numbers experienced by Obama etal in the 2008 and prior Presidential elections. Electing the “First___ (fill in the blank) “to the Presidency regardless of his/her qualifications has shown to have its significant deficiencies.
I think that with the growing unrest in the Nation and increasing threats to Israel, strong groups like AIPAC, Republican Jewish Coalition, COFI etal will attract more Jews away from the Far Left and move them closer to the Center or to the Right of Center and to vote GOP.

This shift may not significantly change the relatively high percentage of Jews that remain Liberal for many of the reasons outlined in this paper. However, as demonstrated in the 2014 elections a measurable shift, albeit “small” and still giving a majority to the Democrats, is more than enough to help win the election for the GOP, especially if similar small shifts concurrently occur in the Black and Hispanic voter base.