By: Randy Evans
As the primary election results in Georgia came in on May 20, Republicans in Washington, D.C., heaved a collective sigh of relief.
As they watched Georgia’s Republican primary election in progress, they were haunted by flashbacks of lost opportunities in the past when weaker challengers defeated stronger potential Republican nominees only to then lose to Democrats in the general election.
But, the consensus seems to be that the GOP primary election results putting businessman David Perdue in a runoff with Congressman Jack Kingston put those fears to rest. GOP insiders consider either candidate to be a much safer bet against Democratic challenger Michelle Nunn – even with the fundraising prowess of an incumbent Democratic president and the legacy and influence of her father, former Democratic Sen. Sam Nunn.
Unfortunately, this “relief” likely translates into an even weaker turnout for the July 22 primary runoff election than the anemic less-than-19 percent voter turnout for the primary election. Indeed, voter turnout in the runoff election in the dead of summer with most Republicans comfortable with either choice for their Senate nominee could drop well below 10 percent. If that happens, just a few motivated Republicans could decide their Senate nominee.
With mounting endorsements, including fellow members of the congressional delegation, former Secretary of State Karen Handel and former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Congressman Kingston appears to have started to open up a sizable and notable lead in the primary election runoff polls. But the race is far from over with such a low voter turnout expected, especially if David Perdue decides to spend more of his wealth on his campaign. After all, endorsements from current or former officeholders (often dubbed as the “establishment”) can cut both ways. On the one hand, unity among Republican Party stalwarts and fellow 2014 GOP primary opponents could actually lock in businessman David Perdue’s campaign positioning as the outsider running against the insiders, including an unpopular Congress and a dysfunctional Washington, D.C. On the other hand, in a low voter turnout primary election runoff election, every vote counts big. If endorsements and existing Congressional campaign organizations translate into votes, then it could be all the difference that Congressman Jack Kingston needs to win.
Interestingly, while all eyes remained fixed on the Senate Republican primary, the biggest winner of the primary election night actually had to be the Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s election results website. While the results were slow coming in from the counties, the website was easy to use, appeared reliable, and remained up and running. By the time the election results were in, no one was even talking about the website. When it comes to the often unpredictable world of computers and the Internet, that was a huge success.
No one was surprised that Gov. Nathan Deal cruised to victory with over 70 percent of the vote. Incumbent governors typically do well in their re-election bids. Incumbent governors seeking renomination by their political party do even better.
Interestingly, notwithstanding the abysmal approval ratings for the Congress, not a single incumbent member of Congress lost. This included members from both political parties facing primary challenges.
It does tend to confirm the notion that general disapproval of Congress does not translate into serious problems for individual members of Congress seeking re-election.
One thing that the primary election confirmed is that money matters in midterm elections when there is no single dominant hot issue.
Even with an impressive ground operation and ample support from some heavy hitters, former Secretary of State Karen Handel simply did not have the resources (money) to compete in the final days of the primary election.
As Perdue and Kingston pounded the airwaves with television advertisements, the needle started to move and then settled with the two biggest spenders in the runoff election.
Money still matters.
This pattern extended beyond just the Senatorial primary election.
Even in the Congressional primary elections, virtually all of the candidates making runoffs were also the ones who raised and spent the most money. The net effect will be many more fundraisers and television advertisements as the primary election runoff and general election approach.
Notably, the petri dish of primary election night was the state school superintendent race – a down ballot race among many largely unknown candidates with no serious money to spend.
Contrary to long-held opinions that the alphabetic order, gender or some other factor limited to just the information discernible from the ballot itself (i.e., the name) impact the outcome, none of that appeared controlling from the state superintendent election results. Indeed, names beginning with the letter “W” appeared to do better, with Richard Woods (in the Republican primary) and Valerie Wilson (in the Democratic primary) making the runoff election.
The name of the runoff game will be voter turnout. As a result, 2014 primary voters can expect a steady drumbeat of mail, email, social media and robocalls as the runoff approaches. Mailboxes, inboxes and voicemails will overflow. The best way to make it stop, or at least slow it down, is just go vote early and get off the list of 2014 primary voters who have yet to vote in the runoff election.
Then, it starts all over with a general election contest that will be the focus of the nation.