By: Randy Evans
On paper, Republicans have probably never had a better shot at regaining control of the U.S. Senate than in 2014. Currently, Democrats hold a 55-45 margin over Republicans. Yet, 35 U.S. Senate seats will be up for grabs in 2014 with 21 currently held by Democrats.
Only 14 Republican Senate seats are on the ballot in 2014 — all of which appear to be in seemingly safe heavily red Republican states or with popular long-serving incumbents. They are Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, South Carolina (both), Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming.
Republicans need to gain just six seats to capture a majority in 2014. But, with 21 Democratic seats at risk, there appear to be plenty of vulnerable targets. For starters, incumbent senators in Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey and West Virginia have all decided to retire. Without an incumbent, Iowa and West Virginia are especially fertile territory for GOP pickups.
Separately, red state Democratic senators face serious challenges in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and South Dakota. This does not include the senators from traditionally Republican Montana and North Carolina. Then there are the purple possibilities of New Hampshire and Colorado. Finally, Republicans will undoubtedly take serious shots at incumbent-less Michigan and the always entertaining Minnesota (with Democratic incumbent Al Franken).
Basically, Republicans have between eight and 12 real opportunities to pick up six seats from the 21 Democratic seats up in 2014 while having no significant problem areas among their 14 seats to defend. Yet, as political pundits are quick to point out, things appeared good for Republicans in 2012 as well — a year when Republicans appeared poised for control with prime opportunities in Florida, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Republicans lost all of them in 2012.
Of course, President Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket and presidential elections do often dictate the rest of the ballot. But, that is not what happened in 2012 with Republicans retaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives and winning competitive gubernatorial elections.
And, therein lies the challenge for Republicans — defining the problem. No state better illustrates this challenge than Georgia.
By all accounts, Georgia should be a safe Senate seat for Republicans (notwithstanding the predictions of a steady march toward purple and then blue). Yet, everyone agrees that a weak nominee could open things up.
Four Georgia Republican congressmen are expected to get in the race before everything is said and done — 1st District Congressman Jack Kingston; 6th District Congressman Tom Price; 10th District Congressman Paul Broun and 11th District Congressman Phil Gingrey.
Each has his own strengths and weaknesses with support varied among the myriad of groups comprising the Republican Party.
Of course, the lost opportunities of the 2012 Senate elections are still fresh in the minds of most GOP insiders. Certainly, some are quick to point to the notorious candidate-caused losses in Missouri and Indiana as evidence that candidates can cost Republicans even the best shots at gains. While others note that consultant-centric campaigns drive candidates without conviction, leaving voters to decide on personalities rather than principle.
And so, the 2012 post-mortem self-re-examination by Republicans continues with questions ranging from ideas about primary election maneuverings to the reconsideration of self-imposed boundaries on central issues like immigration.
Not surprisingly, with questions comes turmoil as internal battles simmer just beneath the surface over the future and direction of the Republican Party. As an example, former Speaker Newt Gingrich penned a newsletter entitled “Why Karl Rove is just plain wrong.”
Speaker Gingrich started the letter with this assessment: “I am writing this newsletter in a very direct, no baloney, effort to get across how much trouble we Republicans are in and how real the internal party fight is going to be.” Essentially, he argued that “Republicans need to drop the consultant-centric model” in which a few well-funded Republican consultants “design the strategy, spend the money and do the thinking.”
So, will that happen in Georgia in the 2014 Senate race? It is a tough question. How can Republican reduce the risk of another primary nominee implosion (like that which happened in Missouri and Indiana) without losing the opportunity to nominate another Sen. Marco Rubio (of Florida)?
Certainly, there will be candidates in the Georgia GOP Primary who will make some consultants and insiders squeamish about the risks in the general election against a well-funded, Obama-machine-backed Democrat. On the other hand, Republicans know too well from 2012 what can happen when nominees fail to excite the base.
There are no easy answers. But, interestingly enough, Georgians will get to see this internal GOP battle actually play itself out right here in the U.S. Senate GOP primary race to replace Saxby Chambliss.