By
Randy Evans

Last week, Republicans gathered for one last time before the race for the GOP presidential nomination goes into full swing. Georgia Republicans met in Athens, Ga., to elect their chairman and officers. National Republicans met in Scottsdale, Ariz., for the Republican National Committee meeting.  Not surprisingly, presidential candidates were in abundance at both gatherings.

In Georgia, delegates to the 2015 Georgia Republican Convention gathered at the Classic Center in Athens.  The over 2,000 attendees were elected at county conventions from around Georgia earlier this year.   The “headliner” was the election of a chairman for a two year term.  But, with presidential politics looming in the background, there was much for delegates to hear and see.

Indeed, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz all gave impressive speeches and took the time to visit with Georgia Republican voters. Georgia’s position as one of the 14 March 1, 2016, Super Tuesday states certainly has a lot to do with it.

Under the new RNC rules, March 1, 2016, is the first date that states can hold a GOP nomination contest after the four “carve out” states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada).  Thirteen other states (so far) have joined Georgia’s decision to hold its presidential preference primary on that first available date — making it the earliest delegate-rich date on the nomination calendar.

Yet, the main attraction in Athens was the election of Georgia Republican Party officers.  Some might think that a chairman who had run the table in the last election would be re-elected by acclamation.  However, Georgia Republicans do have a history of challenging even their most successful chairs.  Indeed, after the 2010 election which Republicans also swept, incumbent GOP Chair Sue Everhardt was challenged by Gov. Nathan Deal’s preference, Tricia Pridemore, at the 2011 state convention.

But, like 2011, winning incumbents do well and incumbent Chairman John Padgett was easily re-elected along with his slate of officers.  Like all conventions, it was a messy affair, but that is the nature of grassroots politics.  Next year, Georgia Republicans will gather to elect delegates and alternates for the Republican National Convention to be held in Cleveland, Ohio, in July 2016.

Meanwhile, the 168-member Republican National Committee met one last time before their summer meeting in August when the first RNC-sanctioned debate will take place. Unlike the Georgia convention which was loud and boisterous, the RNC was anything but.  But behind the scenes, much remains to be done to move past the presidential announcement phase into the all-out campaign phase including the presidential debates.  Lots of backroom discussions continue as Republican leaders attempt to sort out some tricky issues surrounding the process.

Meanwhile, like Georgia, a steady stream of presidential candidates came through to speak and visit with RNC members. Carly Fiorina gave an inspirational speech that left little doubt that she will be a player.  Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum spoke at lunch and then followed up with visits.  And, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush arrived early, met with small groups, and then delivered the dinner speech. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee delivered the luncheon speech on the final day.

Yet, amidst all of the politicking at such a high level, the tough question remained of how many candidates will be on the stage at the first GOP presidential debate in August.  More significantly, if that number is smaller than the total number of candidates, then who gets to decide who makes the stage and who does not?  And exactly what are the criteria for making that important decision?

The spring 2015 RNC meeting ended with less than 90 days before the summer meeting and, most notably, the first debate.  The result was some nervous candidates (and supporters) concerned about formulas and decision-makers who could effectively determine their political futures.

Meanwhile, the polls keep coming in, revealing leaders on the presidential leader board that few expected.  With so many candidates (estimated to be between 15 and 20), with so few debates (nine officially sanctioned, and possibly three more after March 1), with so little time (with the post carve-out states’ time period compressed to around 75 days), some strange things could happen.
With these dynamics, the field could tighten very quickly around the candidates with the most resources and biggest organizations.  Or, it could disperse very rapidly as each candidate does well in their own political backyards or home states, leaving the field without any real dominant frontrunners or favorites.

If that happens, then expect to hear whispers of the possibility of a “brokered convention.”  It could be that out of 15 to 20 candidates, four or five successfully navigate the nomination process leaving none with enough to win the nomination outright, but just enough to make sure no other candidate has enough to win the nomination pre-convention either.

Randy Evans is an attorney and columnist.