By J. Randolph Evans

There are three dates that every Presidential candidate has circled on
the calendar. Individually, none are ‘make or break’ days alone.
Collectively, these three dates will separate the ‘wannabes’ from the
‘real’ candidates heading into the nomination marathon that begins in
Iowa, moves to New Hampshire, and dashes toward South Carolina.
June 13, 2011 is the date for the first GOP Presidential debate in which
virtually all of the candidates will appear together on stage. It will
be a big crowd.
Yes, there has already been one debate. And, yes, there will be many
more. But, this debate will set the stage for the weakest of the field
to share the spotlight with the media-ordained frontrunners.
Back in May, Fox News hosted an early debate in South Carolina without
former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, former House Speaker Newt
Gingrich, and other leading candidates. In that debate, Herman Cain lit
up the field with a very strong performance.
On June 13, 2011, the GOP Presidential debate series moves to Saint
Anselm College in Manchester, New Hampshire. CNN will televise the
debate. Many more candidates will join the crowded field to explain why
they should be the GOP nominee (and why other candidates should not).
The pressure on the candidates will be intense. With two hours of
debate, there will be plenty of opportunities for mistakes. At the same
time, with eight or nine candidates on stage, there will be few
opportunities for each to make his or her case.
Short, power-packed, fact-filled, statements that ‘turn a phrase’ will
be at a premium as the media condenses two hours of questions and
answers into 15-20 second sound bites. Few will actually watch the
debate. Everyone will see the gaffes.
In the subsequent media coverage, outlandish extremes (like legalizing
drugs or eliminating the Federal Reserve) will be ignored in favor of
the slightest misstatement or the shortest moment of uncertainty. Every
candidate will have their mettle tested.
In the end, it will be the contrast (or more likely – the lack of
contrast) among the contenders that will be the story. If the debate is
‘blah, blah, blah’, then frontrunners get stronger and the ‘also rans’
start to fade. But, if there is a spark, it could mean something –
something big if the candidate connects; something disastrous if it is a
big swing and a miss.
July 15, 2011 is the latest date when announced candidates for President
must report how much money they have. (Actually, June 30, 2011 is the
cutoff date. But, under the Federal Election Commission laws and rules,
the candidates actually have an extra two weeks – until July 15, 2011 –
to file their reports. Those candidates with good news will report
early. Those with ‘not so good’ news will wait until the last minute.)

In their reports, candidates for President must report how much money
they have collected, and how much money they have spent. This report
will tell pundits a lot about who insiders believe the frontrunners are
and how effectively they spend their money.
To the surprise of no one, President Barack Obama will report enormous –
gigantic – really, really big numbers for his fundraising. He will have
raised tens of millions (some predict $60 million) by July 15, 2011, on
his way to a total campaign budget of over $1 billion.
Governor Mitt Romney is expected to report some impressive numbers.
While not in the Obama league, the combination of Governor Romney’s own
money and the money he will have raised will catch some eyes.
Everyone concedes that early money is not the best predictor of success.
Governor Mike Huckabee’s 2008 fundraising numbers were nothing to write
home about, but he won the Iowa Republican caucuses with 34%.
In the middle of 2007, Senator John McCain’s fundraising problems were
so well known that the media dubbed him ‘dead man walking.’ At one
point, he was carrying his bags through airports. His campaign manager
quit and his campaign ran out of money. Of course, he went on to become
the 2008 GOP Presidential nominee. Basically, July 15, 2011 is big, but
it is not the game.
August 13, 2011 is the date of the Ames Straw Poll on the campus of Iowa
State University in Ames, Iowa. This is largely regarded as an early
important measure of organizational prowess for Presidential campaigns.

Although many candidates will downplay the significance of the Ames
Straw Poll, every real candidate will pull out all the stops to do well.
What is doing well? To be credible, a candidate needs to finish among
the top three. (The winner of the Ames Straw Poll has not actually
meant much – only three of the five recent winners have gone on to win
the Iowa caucuses.)
June 13, July 15, and August 13 – circle them now.