By: Randy Evans
Like sand through an hourglass, the term of President Barack Obama continues to slip away. In the world of presidential politics, there is actually not that much time to get things done.
Every two years, things in Washington, D.C., inevitably grind to a halt as each party waits on the election outcome. This means that out of eight years (assuming re-election), four years are spent either trying to win (or retain) control of the Congress, run for re-election or wait out the final year.
As a result, whatever a president is going to accomplish must typically occur in the first, third, fifth or seventh years. For lots of practical and political reasons, the first year of a presidential term is the most promising for actually making a difference. President Obama’s first term was no different.
To date, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (the “ACA”) is undoubtedly President Obama’s legacy legislation. With the help of Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic filibuster-proof control of the Senate, President Obama was able in just over one year to enact the most comprehensive health-care legislation in modern history.
There was a price. President Obama signed the ACA on March 23, 2010. On Nov. 2, 2010, Democrats lost control of the U.S. House (losing 63 Democratic seats) and lost six seats in the Senate.
The impact of the midterm 2010 elections on his third year was notable and direct. Budget impasses, spending limits and financial crises followed with political showdowns dominating the national agenda.
With a resounding re-election win, President Obama undoubtedly had high hopes for another opportunity to make a historic difference, notwithstanding Democrats’ failure to gain control of the House of Representatives. His win, and Republican losses in 2012, left a weakened Congress and opened the possibility for more change.
As a result, President Obama hit the ground running in his Inaugural Address on Jan. 20, 2013, with hopes of tackling mega-issues ranging from immigration to climate change. Yet, there is something about presidents’ second terms that make them especially difficult. President Obama’s second term has been no different.
Whether scandals in perception or scandals in fact, scandals have dominated the 2013 agenda for the Obama team. Indeed, the latest polling shows a precipitous drop in President Obama’s approval rating.
Probably the worst sign for President Obama’s second term is that for the first time, one-half of Americans do not believe that he is honest and trustworthy. The net effect is a weakened presidency robbed of its ability to drive a national narrative.
Based on the current political landscape, things will not get any easier for President Obama after this year: 2014 is an election year with Republican control of the House of Representatives largely conceded by insiders, and Republican pickups in the Senate seemingly inevitable given the states at play. If that happens, the balance of his term will give way to little more than political maneuverings in anticipation of the 2016 presidential election.
Of course, regardless of the circumstances, presidents remain policymakers until the day they leave office. Presidents appoint federal judges (including Supreme Court Justices), sign executive orders and otherwise direct the ship of state. The combination leaves an imprint that is not easily erased by either their successors or history. But, these are not the accomplishments of truly historic presidents.
Certainly, history will regard President Obama as a historic president. After all, he is the first African-American president. But President Obama expected more. And he still does.
How to achieve more amidst the swirls of scandals ranging from Benghazi, to the IRS, to the subpoenaing of news reporters, is a big question. Indeed, for almost half of 2013, simple survival has crept into the agenda of many in his administration.
To go further, and in fact accomplish something more in the face of a GOP-controlled House and a bevy of skittish Democratic senators up for re-election in red or purple states in 2014 is an even bigger challenge. But, it can be done.
The combination of a weakened Congress (haunted by continually low approval ratings) and a weakened president eager to do more opens an opportunity for a lost art in Washington, D.C. — compromise. Indeed, mark this down — from now until the next inauguration on Jan. 20, 2017 (regardless of the outcome of the 2014 midterm elections), compromise will dominate the national agenda. Democratic and Republican agendas will fall by the wayside and things will start to happen.
Of course, there will still be rhetoric and political fights. It is still a two-party system. Yet, believe it or not, things are actually starting to happen in Washington, D.C. Don’t be surprised when they do.